TERRORIST THREATS AND TRANSITIONAL DYNAMICS IN AN OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL

Previous research has shown that the duration of a civil war is in part a function of how it ends: in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement. We present a model of how protagonists in a civil war choose to stop fighting. Hypotheses derived from this theory relate the duration of a civil war to its outcome as well as characteristics of the civil war and the civil war nation. Findings from a competing risk model reveal that the effects of predictors on duration vary according to whether the conflict ended in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement.     

钢质油罐底板腐蚀概率估计

针对钢质油罐底板腐蚀,首先分析了油罐底板腐蚀工程检测数据的特点和腐蚀试验数据统计分析理论;然后针对工程检测信息不完全的特性,以最大腐蚀深度的预测估计为目标,建立了以轻微腐蚀面积估计来实现腐蚀概率修正估计的模型;最后利用广州等地27个罐约900条检测数据估计了油罐底板的最大腐蚀深度。其最大相对误差小于45%,约80%的相对误差优于30%。     

Nonparametric bayesian lifetime data analysis using dirichlet process lognormal mixture model

We propose a nonparametric Bayesian lifetime data analysis method using the Dirichlet process mixture model with a lognormal kernel. A simulation‐based algorithm that implements the Gibbs sampling is developed to fit the Dirichlet process lognormal mixture (DPLNM) model using rightly censored failure time data. Five examples are used to illustrate the proposed method, and the DPLNM model is compared to the Dirichlet process Weibull mixture (DPWM) model. Results indicate that the DPLNM model is capable of estimating different lifetime distributions. The DPLNM model outperforms the DPWM model in all the examples, and the DPLNM model shows promising potential to be applied to analyze failure time data when an appropriate parametric model for the data cannot be specified. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

党的群众路线在南梁革命根据地的光辉实践

以刘志丹、谢子长、习仲勋为代表的共产党人领导创建了以南梁为中心的陕甘边革命根据地。他们始终坚持把建立人民政权、维护人民群众利益作为革命的根本目的,坚定不移地走群众路线,坚持密切联系群众、关心群众疾苦、维护群众利益,充分相信群众、紧紧依靠群众,选举群众代表参与政府重要工作、参加政权建设和社会事务管理,形成了“只见公仆不见官”的和谐生动局面。在党的群众路线指引下,南梁革命根据地的广大人民群众义无反顾地参加革命、支持革命,支援、帮助各级党组织和人民军队开展革命斗争,为中国革命的胜利做出了重大贡献。     

Investigation of the shock compression behaviors of Al/PTFE composites with experimental and a 3D mesoscale-model

The responses of AI/PTFE reactive materials (RMs) under shock compression were investigated by a single-stage gas gun.A 3D mesoscale-model was established based on micro-computed tomography(micro-CT) slice images and confirmed with experimental results.In the high-pressure stage,the com-posites reacted partially,whereas there were no deviations between the partially reacted Hugoniot and the inert simulation results.The simulation reveals that the Teflon matrix melting on the high shock pressure.Melts and decomposition of the PTFE accelerated the diffusion of the atoms.Thus,the reactions of the Al/PrFE composites are more like a combustion rather than a detonation.     

基于ANSYS的油罐拱顶稳定性分析

针对加肋拱顶稳定性十分复杂的问题,基于ANSYS建立了加肋拱顶油罐的三维有限元模型,对加肋拱顶的结构稳定性进行了数值模拟。对加肋拱顶在外压作用下的线性与非线性临界屈曲载荷进行了对比分析,利用弧长法获得了拱顶在加肋情况下径向、环向、轴向的载荷-位移曲线。结果表明:数值模拟的加肋拱顶屈曲方向和屈曲区域与实际失稳结果相一致,可以为加肋拱顶设计和稳定性分析提供一定参考。     

基于DIFHA算子的动态直觉模糊多属性群决策方法

动态决策问题是现实中的一类常见问题。在提出动态直觉模糊混合平均(D IFHA)算子的基础之上,提供一种动态直觉模糊多属性群决策方法。该方法能同时考虑决策过程的阶段性和属性值位置对决策结果的影响,并较好地处理决策过程中的定性指标。分析和算例证实该方法的可行性和实用性。     

应变局部化理论及在岩土中的应用

应变局部化是物质内部应变积聚而生成的应变窄带,也称剪切带。固体材料特别是岩土材料的塑性变形和破坏常常与应变局部化现象相联系。应用经典连续介质力学来研究应变局部化现象遇到很多困难,如数值模拟的结果病态依赖于有限元网格等。为了克服这一困难,国内外研究者尝试着用各种不同的方法来研究应变局部化现象,包括理论、实验、数值模拟等方法。本文对应变局部化理论及其在岩土中新的应用进行了总结与回顾。